by Scott Humor

“Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.”

 “The character of a war that Russia or its allies might be drawn into is very hard to predict.

Nonetheless, we must.”

The Value of Science Is in the Foresight:

New Challenges Demand Rethinking the Forms and Methods of Carrying out Combat Operations,

by General of the Army Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation Armed Forces

 

In February 2020, the Pentagon made public a plan to nuclear bomb Belarus in ‘response’ to an activation of a small nuclear device on a territory of an unidentified NATO member.

Not coincidentally, at the same time, the RAND corporation released a multi-year research report by the federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) sponsored by the United States Army and titled “Russia’s Hostile Measures. Combating Russian Gray Zone Aggression Against NATO in the Contact, Blunt and Surge Layers of Competition published as a part of the project “Russia, European Security, and ‘Measures Short of War,’” sponsored by the U.S. Army Deputy Chief of Staff. The report promises to Pentagon “a predictable Russian behavior” to the NATO provocations. The report is available for download here.

According to the RAND, there is no peace or war, there are only three stages of war: the Gray Zone – the Hybrid Un-War – the Conventional War – High-Order War – the Nuclear war. The aim of this report is to list many different ways to attack Russian people without triggering their government’s military response.

The conclusion of the RAND report: Russians are bears.

The RAND corporation suggests “the need to reconsider the traditional analytic emphasis on Russian military measures. Literal prediction of the future is a logical impossibility. We do not claim that we can predict Russian behavior. Because prediction is a pejorative term in the analytic world, we describe Russian hostile-measures behavior as practicably foreseeable: NATO leaders and analysts should be able to foresee Russian behavior because it has been consistently and overtly templated for such a long time. Foreseeable actions can be deterred, prevented, or countered.” page 50-51 of the report.

I like the report, it’s an interesting fictional account of historical and fictional events. Its major flaw of reasoning is that the RAND researchers see the USSR and modern Russia as the same entity, which cannot be further from the truth. The USSR – its history, political structure, economic philosophy and ideology were deeply anti-Russian and, with a short exception of the WWII, was ruled by the West controlled people.

khrushev son usa citisensgip 1999
Khrushchev’s son, accepting the the US citizenship in 1999: “I feel like a newborn. This is the beginning of a new life.”

Same were the first ten years of post USSR history of the 1990s. So, what the RAND claims as “Russian behavior” was indeed the behavior of the Soviet Russophobic ruling class and their ideology that intentionally and willfully did everything to harm Russians and to reward the fourteen titled ethnic minorities at Russians expense. The following twenty years have been a fight against this deeply rooted anti-Russian trends in economy, politics, media, academia and everywhere else. In other words, the “consistently and overtly templated Russian behavior” that the RAND researcher are so proud to formulate were mostly the Russophobic trends that are being gradually removed.

Same could be said about the Russian Empire. The difference between Russian sovereign rule and three hundred years of foreigners ruling under the name of the Romanovs cannot be overstated. For once, take the Romanovs’ desire to look good for their European cousins and their obsession with absorbing hostile European territories at the expense of economic wellbeing of Russia, with the same done by the USSR towards its ethnic peripheries. If the Soviet Union had any pro-Russian policies, they would make Russia strong and its ethnic minority peripheries weak. That never was the case.

From the point of view of Russian people now, in case of a war, the hostile territories should be bombed into mud and left to be. There is an opposition to any notion that their should be an “occupation” or investments into their recovery, at all. A few days ago, Russia suspended work of its trade missions in US and the three Baltic States while stepping up its trade support in some countries, in particular, in Saudi Arabia and Mexico. For the Baltic states the loss of Russian market and a combined loss of transfer fees are the economic embodiment of this Russian sentiment. Another such instance are Putin’s words that we don’t need the world in which there is no Russia. This means that if the modern totalitarian West continues on its current path, we will take them and the rest of the world down with us. This is a complete divorce with the WWII liberation from fascism and totalitarianism sentiments practiced by the USSR. That’s clearly a full divorce from what the RAND calls “consistently and overtly templated Russian behavior.”

The RAND report is, however, important as a part of the ongoing information war against Russia with such steps as:

Rewriting the current history;

Rewriting the 20th century history and the history of the WWII;

Inventing fake “Russia’s crimes” against the West;

Based on fake and invented “Russian crimes against the West” planning the attacks against Russia as it was reported by the DefenseOne publication.

The first week in February 2020, the U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper took part in a classified military drill in which Russia and the United States traded nuclear strikes. The “mini exercise” held at U.S. Strategic Command headquarters in Omaha, Nebraska, came just weeks after the U.S. confirmed that it has deployed controversial low-yield nuclear missiles on Navy submarines, and as the Trump administration asks Congress to approve $44 billion to buy new nuclear weapons and maintain its existing arsenal.

“The scenario included a European contingency where you’re conducting a war with Russia and Russia decides to use a low-yield, limited nuclear weapon against a site on NATO territory,” a senior defense official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss classified military drills.

The U.S. fired back with what the senior official called a “limited response” to Moscow’s nuclear attack in Europe.

See more, Esper Plays Nuclear War: Russia Nukes Europe, US Fires Back

Two points that needed to be said about this and many similar reports.

First, as Andrei Raevsky points out, all military at all time develop plans of attacks against their adversaries. Having such a plan doesn’t mean that an army would ever act upon them. Second, such plans are released by the media or by the think tanks as an intel fishing expedition with an intention to coerce the target nation’s government and its military to make statements that would reveal something and would unintentionally leak valuable information. The facts that these plans of attack and wars in Europe are being released is an indication that Pentagon and NATO have no inside information of what’s going on in Russia’s defense and that coercion of unwitting remarks is the only way they can obtain information. Otherwise, no one publishes actual plans of attacks. Right?

It’s, actually, wrong. There are many exceptions to this rule, and one of them being preparations for a false flag attack.

Just because we can publicly discuss this plan of action doesn’t mean that this plan or a variation of thereof won’t be implemented. Just because the Americans published a plan to trigger a nuclear device in Eastern European and in “response” to this false flag event to bomb Belarus, it doesn’t mean that they won’t do it.

So far we have seen a predictable outrage and comments coming from members of Russian parliament. Russian Senator Alexey Pushkov, a chairman of Russia’s Information Policy committee, posted on his twitter: “What to believe: the U.S. promises not to place its nuclear missiles in Europe or to their plan to simulate a nuclear strike on Russia during the U.S. defense Ministry exercises, which implies the presence of such missiles on the continent? You should not believe the assurances, but the military plans of the Pentagon. Simulated impact is a good guide.”

Senator Sergei Tsekov called organizers and participants of the exercise “sick people,” and Alexander Sherin, the deputy head of the Duma’s defense committee, said that first, “the population is getting used to such an incredible scenario for resolving the conflict as a nuclear strike between the Russian Federation and the NATO bloc. Secondly, it’s an attempt to intimidate the population of Europe and justify the presence of American bases in European countries.”

Other Duma deputies commented that Pentagon makes up the plans of attacks to blackmail Washington for more money, while Washington blackmails its European allies for more funding of NATO. This plan also directly targets Russia’s trade with Europe, because it demonstrates to Europeans that just one relatively small and cheap American false flag operation can put a kabash to the whole European energy system and there is nothing Europeans can do about this.

The Europeans perfectly understand the game, and only pretend to be clueless. In February 22nd interview with Jens Stoltenberg the Der Spiegel asked him why would Russia spending billions (in building pipelines) and risks its trade with Europe by threatening Europe military? Stoltenberg preferred not to answer saying that “We just see that Moscow does this.” Mysterious Russian soul and all that. Per European totalitarian tradition, Russian media wasn’t allowed to ask any questions. The interview in German here, and in Russian here. in which Stoltenberg also reminded the NATO members that if one of them is attacked everyone will be forced to go to war, irregardless.

Everything NATO says and Pentagon does is suggestive, of course, meaning that Europeans always have an option to ignore the Pentagon’s war games. Pentagon’s operations like the one in invading Ukraine are very obviously false flag attacks, and it’s only due to European collective will that they take American war games at face value.

With the US temporarily stopping the construction of the Nord Stream2, the next logical step would be to stop all and any trade with Russia, and a nuclear device explosion anywhere in the eastern Europe with the following nuclear strikes against Belarus would serve this purpose perfectly.

What are the objectives of such massive provocation?

For the first time ever American troops will be operating in the A2AD environment that is currently there, but it’s not turned on. The questions are: What are the Americans going to do? What are their objectives? How do they plan to survive?

Political objectives are clear: to claim that Russia has used a nuclear device, to declare Russia a rogue state and a failed state, and to force the Europeans and the rest of the world to impose a full economic and political blockade against Russia. That will include severance of all economic ties including natural gas and oil purchases from Russia, the severance of all political and diplomatic ties. and removal Russia from the UN and from the UN SC. That will also include detention of all Russian citizens who happened at the time to be outside of Russia. The knowledge and evidence that the nuclear device explosion would be the American false flag operation won’t change anything, since the collective humanity would go along with the US hoping against hope that Russia will be destroyed and that they all would benefit somehow.

Why Belarus?

What targets in Belarus Pentagon planes to engage?

How Belarus would repel these attacks?

According to an anonymous source inside the White House, Lukashenka was conducting secret negotiations with Washington starting with 2016.

Belarus is currently conducting a massive rush sale of state’s strategic industrial assets. This process in light of the Pentagon’s threats shows a rush to get money out of the assets with the most likely aim to get money out of the country.

At the same time, Russian and Belarus marines conducted joint tactical drills on February 19th. The military personnel of the two countries worked out the landing of personnel on the airfield captured by the enemy forces.

Most likely that Americans will target Russia’s defense assets in Belarus.

There are two such objects, both are strategic.

Near the town of Baranovichi located the Volga radar (70M6), the Daryal-type radar (Russian: Дарьял) (NATO: Pechora) is a Soviet built bistatic early-warning radar. The Volga radar was put on combat duty in 2003. It located on over 200 hectares and employs about 1200 personnel. This radar is part of the missile attack warning system (SPRn), which tracks launches and flights primarily of ballistic missiles. But it can also work with all other air objects-cruise missiles and aircraft, including low-visibility ones.

The advantages include the fact that, in comparison with the radar stations located on the territory of Russia, the Volga is West forward based, meaning it can detect a missile attack earlier. If, in fact, Pentagon will go forward with its plan, this Volga Radar will be the one detecting the launch of American tactical missiles.

However, the loss of this early-warning radar won’t be devastating for the defense system. Since 2003, Russia developed and built several earlier-warning radars, Voronezh-VP and Voronezh-SM. Russia being the first in the world to realize the technology of high manufacture readiness for these radars. It means that these radars are being assembled from the pre-manufactured model construction blocks with an estimated time of completion to be about 1.5 year instead of 10 years previously. These new stations also require only a couple of hundred highly trained personnel instead of several thousands for the older versions like the one in Belarus.

The second strategic asset is the 43rd Russian Navy’s long-haul communications center located near Vileyka, Minsk region. It provides VLF communication between Russian Navy’s headquarters and atomic submarines in the Atlantic, Indian and parts of the Pacific Ocean with the ultra-long-wave radio station “Antey”, intended for communication with submarines. This hub has a 400-hectare antenna field with 300-meter-high masts. Russia has other defense assets that perform same or similar tasks.

Another valuable defense target could be the 558 Aviation Repair Plant located in the city of Baranovichi, a large industrial center and the important transport node in the West of Belarus. JSC “558 ARP” is the only enterprise in the Republic of Belarus and one of few CIS companies providing a wide range of services in repair and upgrade of various aircraft.

558 Aircraft Repair Plant offers the following services: – overhaul and modernization of Su-30, Su-27, Su-25, Su-22, MiG-29, An-2 aircrafts, Mi-17, Mi-171, Mi-35 helicopters – production and delivery of aircraft spare parts and mechanical rubber items – creating of stationary and mobile centers of logistic support and servicing – development, production and delivery of automated workplaces for repair of avionics – training of Customers’ pilots and technicians – production of “Satellite”, airborne radio electronic equipment of individual protection.

Will Belarus be able to defend the assets its hosts?

It depends on how Pentagon decides to bomb Belarus. It could use the B61 bombs and the F-15 and F-16, or В-2 as delivery vehicles, or to use the nuclear submarines in the Baltic Sea with newly installed Trident II SLBM/submarine-launched ballistic missiles with W76-1 or W76-2 warheads, or its anti-missile systems in Germany and Romania.

The air defense system of Belarus includes about two dozen rather formidable s-300V4 and S-300PS SAMS. These complexes are able to meet the aggressors on the distant approaches. There are complexes and more short-range – Buk and TOR. They also have several dozens fighter aircraft: MiG-29s and SU-30s. Overall, it’s more than nothing, but it’s not a sustained strikes defense force and in this case much depends on talent and training of the men in uniform.

The S-400 are more suited to intercept a non-massive ballistic missile attack. Turkey got them. Lukashenka never bothered to get them even to defend his capital Minsk. It could be that he fully relies on Russia for protection based on the mutual defense agreement.

Agreement between the Russian Federation and the Republic Belarus on military cooperation*(as amended on December 17, 2018) Article 1: ensuring joint actions for the armed protection of Russia and Belarus.

It’s important to note that Pentagon releases its plan of attack against Belarus after Pompeo’s visit there and his meeting with Lukashenka.

Pentagon and NATO wants to keep the “competition of the nation states” alive, but below the level of direct conflict between the US and Russia. Despite the Pentagon’s claims that a nuclear attack against Belarus is not same as the attack against Russia and shouldn’t trigger Russia’s global strike response, it’s obvious that the US targets Russia’s military assets on the territory of Belarus, which would indicate the strike against Russia regardless of how the U.S. military would qualify such event.

The Pentagon’s military objectives

To terrorize Russia’s population living in the Western part of Russia and on the territory of Belarus, which is a territory temporarily separated from Russia and populated by Russian people.

Testing Russia’s A2AD environment in preparation for a full scale conflict against Russia and China.

The destruction of Russia’s defense assets on the territory of Belarus.

The nuclear contamination of large areas of Western Russia with the most dense population and most economic activities in terms of industries and agriculture.

The contamination of the rivers and waterways important for the Western parts of Russia and Ukraine. The main water supplying river in Ukraine Dnepr which is the main source of drinking water for Kiev begins in Belarus. It’s radioactive waters will negatively affect millions of Ukrainians downstream. This won’t directly affect the Crimeans, since Ukraine is blocking the water channel to the peninsula.

What are the most likely locations of the nuclear false flag event?

In January 2018, questioning on the location of the next major conflict, General Robert B. Neller responded that “I said there is a big-ass fight coming up, I didn’t say where.” at 24 min

For variety of reasons, I think that the most possible location for the false flag attack and the nuclear device explosion will not be Tallinn, but the Arctic part of Norway near Russia’s border.

This week the ABC and other corporate media outlets ran the reports of the US militants preparing to act as the “Winter Warriors.”

winter warriors

We have to keep in mind that someone has to act the role of the “Russian invasion” troops and this someone, at the very least, has to be able to move across the snowy terrain and not just sliding aimlessly and beating their private parts against the ice.

The stages of the Pentagon’s false flag attack

The operation is already in progress.

The informational part of this operation includes multiple publications about “Russian private military companies” operating virtually everywhere in the world. If you use the virtual troops, it’s super-easy for them to operate virtually everywhere. Russian officials issued numerous statements denying media rumors and pointing out that Russia doesn’t have private military companies and that any mercenaries operating anywhere and claiming to be Russians are viewed by the government as terrorists.

Where do the liberal press get their throw-ins about “Russian mercenaries” and that they are “bombing hospitals”? Here, for example, found among the things of a militant killed in Syria, printouts of articles from the liberal Fontanka newspaper along with the phone number of the special correspondent of liberal rabidly Russophobic Novaya Gazeta Denis Korotkov

Meanwhile, Pentagon prepares to fight Russia and China along CONUS perimeter.

A preparation for American-European war against Russia and the price tag. A lovely discussion of ongoing preparations for the war in the American press. Take as an example, Sydney Freedberg who, for some reason, thinks that after NATO attacks Russia, Europe would have any bridges left: OMFV: The Army’s Polish Bridge Problem

Ukraine is moving military bases closer to border with Russia.

With all the war buildup that is going on in Ukraine, just recently on February 10. Russia’s MID sounded an alarm to hear Kiev’s statements on the revision of the Minsk agreements in case of the absence of immediate steps towards their implementation, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an interview with the Rossiskaya Gazeta daily. Considering the plans for NATO nuclear strike, it’s not out of question for Ukraine to try to invade Belarus.

With the noise of war preparation by NATO, Serbia is getting ahead. On February 22, Russia delivered to Serbia the first batch of Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft missile and gun systems.

Europe is bombarded by articles claiming that Russia wants to invade them. As an example, see Russia isn’t just mapping Ireland’s internet cables – it’s planning to INVADE, foams Cold-War-revivalist DC think tank.

Russian military experts, the Ministry of foreign Affairs and president issued multiple statements and proposals for deescalation in Europe. All are fallen on deaf ears. In Russian see articles here, here, here and here.

Feverish hysteria, high volume of claims of Russian invasion of the Western nation, and their sheer insanity claiming that one nation of 140 million is about to invade 70+ countries of NATO and their allies with the population of over 1 billion people. All of these points to some kind of artificial culmination.

What are the Americans going to do to be survivable in this new for them environment?

On Friday, February 21, 2020, the first of 13 thousand armoured vehicles, together with up to 20 thousand soldiers from the U.S. started to arrive in Bremerhaven, Germany to take part in exercise DEFENDER-Europe 20 this year. The U.S. ship Endurance carried over 2,400 pieces of equipment, including tanks, other tracked vehicles and more than 1,200 wheeled vehicles and trailers and a team of soldiers from the U.S. Army’s 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 3rd Infantry Division from Savannah, Georgia to the port at Bremerhaven. For the safe and smooth movement of troops and equipment from various ports in Europe, such as Bremerhaven in Germany, towards the exercise areas in eastern European countries, such as Poland and the Baltic states, solid logistical planning is critical. Exercise DEFENDER-Europe 20 is the largest deployment of U.S.-based troops to Europe in more than 25 years. The exercise, including the re-deployment, will last until July this year.

As Georgy Isserson wrote in his book New Forms of Combat, “War in general is not declared. It simply begins with already developed military forces. Mobilization and concentration are not part of the period after the onset of the state of war as was the case in 1914 but rather, unnoticed, proceed long before that.

German politicians criticize the American escalation in Europe: BERND RIEXINGER, Chairman of the Left party of Germany: “There is no need in these NATO exercises. They are conducted at the wrong time, and they will send the wrong signal. On the Western border of Russia, in fact, are being deployed troops and tanks, instead of actively pursuing a peaceful policy.”

Video in German and its Russian translation under the cut.

As American troops arrive to Germany, Alexey Danilov, Secretary of the national security and defense Council (NSDC) of Ukraine makes a public statement that Kiev is conducting a “very, very powerfully preparation for a large-scale offensive.

Trump administration boasts delivering the Javelin systems and other lethal aid to Ukraine in their own words “to fight the war against Russia.” What they never admit is that the Javelin systems are not distributed to the Ukrainian army, but are being stored on the American military bases in Yavoriv on so called Yavoriv Combat Training Center and at the Vinnytsia Air Base in the west and north of Ukraine near the borders with Poland and Belarus. The Javelin anti-tank missiles’ military value has been limited so far — “they “ended up on the other side of the country from where the conflict is and under lock and key.

These systems are only a part of the massive arms and lethal equipment buildup undertaken by the Pentagon on Russia’s borders. The U.S. provided about $1.5 billion in military aid to Kiev between 2014 and June 2019, according to a Congressional Research Service analysis. The U.S. Congress, has financed items such as sniper rifles; rocket-propelled grenade launchers; counter-artillery radars; command and control and communications systems; night vision goggles; medical equipment; as well training and logistical support. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R45008

The steps NATO takes in setting up the theater of operation militarily, politically, conformationally, financially.

The collapse of food and products supply in Italy due to the Coronavirus scare is a glimpse of what would immediately take place in Europe when and if the Pentagon’s plan to blow up a nuclear device were to take place.

Russia already DOES manage the American decline in a number of different military-political ways, some of which are beyond the grasp of even China

The United States is waging “economic war on China,” and most likely that the Coronavirus is a CIA-manufactured biological weapon.

Trump famously asked in a cabinet meeting, “Why do we have nuclear weapons if we refuse to use them?”

The US continues weekly issuing illegal unilateral trade restrictions against Russia legally engaging in lawful international commerce. One should not forget that economic sanctions without a mandate from the UN constitute a war crime; a crime without statute of limitation.

The West organizes attacks against Russia’s diplomats, refusing to issue visas to the UN events, and simply physically threatening diplomats during the events, like a few female Georgians accosted Lavrov in Geneva.

Europe, however, makes some baby steps towards its sovereignty from the US. After several Georgian females attacked Russia’s Foreign Minister, the Committee of Ministers of the Council of Europe (CMCE) had decided to hold its May meeting not in Tbilisi, as previously planned, but in Strasbourg.

The US continues blocking Russian delegations from exercising Russia’s rights as the UN founding nation.

NATO’s recent ramped-up ‘struggle’ against two military doctrines that has been allegedly attributed to Russia, yet, Moscow rebuffs them as “non-existent”.NATO battling two ‘non-existent’ Russian military concepts

The Gerasimov’s doctrines that the Pentagon loves to refer to and which doesn’t exist. At 1:01:00 here is just one example how soft-spoken Pentagon generals use the fictional “Gerasimov’s doctrine’ to justify the American aggression against Russia.

Anyone can read Gerasinov’s article titled “The value of science in predicting future events: New challenges demand” in Russian here.

Download the English translation pdf file here.

Back in 2013 Gerasimov wrote: “We must acknowledge that, while we understand the essence of traditional military actions carried out by regular armed forces, we have only a superficial understanding of asymmetrical forms and means.”

How far in these past seven years Russia has advanced in understanding of the Western ways of war is outside of the scoop of this article. Ultimately, only the war can tell.

The Event

The Event has to start with the “Russian invasion” of a NATO country and a small nuclear device detonated somewhere in Eastern Europe. The territory of this Event must be a NATO member to justify the Americans attack against Belarus. It could be Norway near the border with Russia, Finland, Poland, or one of three small Baltic states. Ukraine is less likely, but NATO’s preparation for the asymmetrical strike against Russia via Belarus explains why Zelinsky’s regime is in a hurry to write Ukraine into NATO, meaning that they know about the plans and go along with it.

Previously, similar Events took place in Ukraine in 2014 and in Georgia in 2008.

The American invasion of Ukraine resulted in ethnic cleansing against Russian population called by Kiev “Anti-Terror Operation” with Russian civilian population being labeled as “terrorists.” Two Events allowed all these to happen. The first Event was called the “Maidan revolution” when in reality it was the American organized coup against a democratically elected president of Ukraine in February 2014. The second Event that actually started the ethnic cleansing was so called “Donbass uprising,” a false flag attack with a group of Russian, Georgian, Israeli and Ukrainian citizens playing roles of “Russian invasion.” The leader of this proxy group was Igor Girkin (Strelkov) a personal bodyguard to a billionaire, Konstantine Malafeev, a Renaissance Capital alumnus. The other participants were financed by Ukrainian oligarchs, and other American based money channels.

My research Pokemon in Ukraine describing the setup and the basic scenario of this false flag operation is free to download here.

The Donbass false flag attack was a very cheap and successful way to ensnare Russia in a bloody anti-Russian conflict and to justify for the Western public the asymmetrical war against the Russian nation including the economic, political, judicial, cultural, sport, terror, industrial sabotage, and a worldwide hunt and state enforced disappearances of Russian citizens.

In essence, in 2014, a small group of B-movie actors, movie directors, circus performers, retired athletes and failed fashion models, unemployed addicts and common criminals shadowed by the American trained special ops troops showing false colors and acting for the Kiev forces one day and for the “Russian” forces another day, managed to stage something that had never happened and what they still officially call the “Russian invasion of Ukraine.”

Armed with this scenario, it’s easy for the Americans to stage another similar false flag attack in which a group of Russian speaking crisis actors would act on cameras as “Russian invasion” of… Poland, Estonia, or Norway.

Now, imagine my great interest when this week I discovered an article for the social platform Cont titled “Expect the polite people in Tallinn! The Other Russia party.”

other russia lemonov tallin

This material is an exact proof of my old thesis that an armed operation in Europe will be unfolding in similar way to the war on Donbass. My previous articles and sitreps on the matter: Pentagon makes a 20-year plan, “We are all going to die,” “WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!” – 2, and Michael McFaul: We declared war on Russia. What’s next? that discloses the MO (modus operandi) of the NATO and the U.S. military “events” production teams in the Baltic states and in France.

The scenario is as follows: to create a general image of ethnic tensions, a NATO member preferably with existing Russian population would adopt the most abusive anti-Russian racist laws, or, a government would make infuriating Russophobic statements. In case of Estonia, they just recently issued statements of territorial demands from Russia. Russia officially shrugged them off as nonsense. Nevertheless, several small staged demonstrations took place both in Russia and in Estonia. In Saint Petersburg, as we can see the outrage is being staged by the same proxies that in 2014 were involved in staging Donbass protests: the Other Russia party.

On February 23rd, several unidentified crisis actors staged a performance in front of the Estonian embassy in Saint Petersburg holding the signs “You will get a dick instead of Pechora,” and spreading the leaflets.

The text of the leaflets: “Fuck you, instead of Pechora! The Estonian authorities finally went crazy on the basis of Russophobia, megalomania and revanchism. Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu calls our country an “aggressor” and a “falsifier of history.” The speaker of parliament Henn Billwas demands Russian territories of Pechora and our ancient fortresses Izborsk and Ivangorod. On the so-called “independence day” of Estonia, we, the national Bolsheviks, wish to “Every Russophobe – a strong coffin!”. You will continue in the same spirit – we will remind you of Alexander Nevsky on lake Peipus, Peter the Great in Revel, and comrade Andrey Zhdanov with the glorious solar revolution of 1940. Expect the polite people in Tallinn! “The Other Russia” party”.

The Other Russia party is an anti-government extremist organization banned in Russia. It was founded and initially led by Eduard Limonov, a writer most known for his description of himself having homosexual sex with a black dude in New York. Now, Limonov claims of having nothing to do with the organization he founded.

This particular publication is, in my view, important, because it was Eduard Limonov and his party members who were active during the initial period in the false flag attack in Donbass. In my research Pokemon in Ukraine, I demonstrate how Limonov’s scenario of the false flag attack in Ukraine failed in Crimea, but was implemented in Donbass.

His organization doesn’t officially exist in Russia and it’s members routinely get arrested and jailed, which doesn’t mean that somewhere in Estonia, Latvia, Norway or Ukraine a NATO cross-functional team won’t claim its membership and get on the action of dressing up for the occasion and walking in the center of Tallinn claiming to be the “Russian special forces.”

Come to think of it, that’s exactly what they are going to do. They are looking now into drastic and lethal scenarios in which an American proxy group impersonating Russian special forces (most likely they will call themselves the PMC Wagner and the ‘polite people’) would show up in Tallinn or Norway and after a televised and, most likely, previously recorded “battle,” would blow up a nuclear explosive device triggering a cascade of events including the US submarine nuclear strike against Russian military installations on the territory of Belarus as described in the Pentagon’s scenario.

What would Russia do?

I think that overall this Event as planned will have a positive impact. It will speed up the process of integration of the temporarily separated from Russia territories and people back into Russia. Belarus has the capability to defend itself and Russia’s western flank from the limited strike. We can even get pleasantly surprised if Russia activates its EW A2AD environment and redirects NATO missiles back into the enemy’s territory. Imagine how great it would be if Pentagon’s lethal gifts would end up exploding over Warsaw instead of Minsk?

The Russian government will issue statements denying any involvement in this provocation. In my view the most likely scenario that Russia will do its best to deflect the nuclear strike against Belarus, but won’t go any further and will take a rain check to retaliate in a way and time most auspicious for Russia.

We have to assume that the Pentagon’s plan to plunge Europe into chaos by 2028 is in motion since 2008. We can see that the EU authorities and the governments of the EU members are in compliance with the plan.

We have to assume that the provocation will be successful and that the Americans will achieve their interim political and economic goals. Will this provocation achieve Washington’s military goals is another story altogether.

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